Markets such as total points are statistically drawn from earlier form in a tournament and the history of the two players involved and the firms are unlikely to make too many mistakes in such markets. The closer the game, the more points there should be, and a couple of games or so with a handful of deuces can be enough to leave sellers in trouble. Total aces, double faults and aces and double fault supremacy markets between two players are also strictly based on past performance.
If there is an edge to be had, it must also be tempered with the fact that the 1-point spread for aces and 1.5 spread for double faults is relatively large as a percentage of their volatility. ‘The players are definitely getting better. They are more aggressive generally and putting together bigger breaks. There were a record number of century breaks at the World Championship in 2002 and that will continue to happen. There are also youngsters coming along who are superb and challenging the best players.’
Other points always to be aware of include the fact that although the drivers may not officially have a team order, there is definitely a pecking order. The days of a team’s ‘second’ driver allowing his team mate to pass him as they go round the final bend may be over, but there is no getting away from the fact that team orders do exist. Expect the senior driver to have the choice of cars, more testing time, better engineers and first choice to take his pit stops across all the teams.