The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #66: Steve Lombardozzi

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Name: Steve Lombardozzi
DOB: 9/20/88
Organization: Nationals
Position: Second base
Notable 2011 Stats: .309/.366/.454 with 12 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 38/18 K/BB, and 16-for-19 SB in 65 games with Harrisburg (AA);
.310/.354/.408 with 13 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 40/21 K/BB, and 14-for-19 SB in 69 games with Syracuse (AAA);
.309/.360/.430 with 25 2B, 9 3B, 8 HR, 78/39 K/BB, and 30-for-38 SB in 134 games total in minors;
6-for-31 with 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K in 13 games with Nationals

Why He’s This High: Lombardozzi is basically ready to start for a major league team at second base right now, after hitting over .300 at both upper-minors levels.

A switch-hitter, Lombardozzi boasts plus speed that has allowed him to consistently post above-average BABIP figures. Between his .320-.355 BABIPs and 11-14% strikeout rates, he excels in both drivers of batting average, and should at least be an annual .270-.280 hitter in the big leagues.

He has enough power to keep the bat from being knocked out of his hands, as he ripped 42 extra-base hits in the minors this year, and he could grow into 10-HR power as he matures–let’s not forget he just turned 23.

Lombardozzi’s plus speed allows him to be an asset on the bases, where he swiped 30 bags this past season, a big improvement over his 24-for-36 performance of 2010 and an indication that the heady infielder is refining his instincts.

Perhaps the most notable positive with Lombardozzi, however, is his glove. He has excellent athleticism for second base, and combines that with fantastic fundamentals–he made no errors in Triple-A. Certainly, fielding percentage isn’t everything, but Lombardozzi also boasts excellent range, to the point where he can play shortstop if needed. He also has experience at third base, although that’s not a big factor in an organization that boasts both Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon.

Why He’s This Low: Lombardozzi doesn’t have a big power ceiling, and therefore, he’s going to have to find his way on base if he’s going to be a bigtime player. His defense should allow him to start as long as his bat doesn’t go completely limp–which it shouldn’t–but given that a lot of his minor league success is built on elevated BABIPs, he’ll need to prove he can sustain that performance in the majors.

That means that Lombardozzi’s going to need to show he can consistently square the ball up for line drives, which isn’t easy to do against big league pitchers. He could also stand to tighten up his strike zone somewhat–his 2/1 minor league K/BB ratio is passable, but if he’s going to be a top-of-the-order hitter, he could use some more margin for error in either his contact rate or his walk rate.

In general, of course, we’re talking about a player with somewhat limited upside. He projects as something like a .285/.340/.400 hitter with plus defense at second base if things go reasonably well, but it’s tough to see Lombardozzi coming up with much more than that except in perhaps a career year, or if he takes an unforeseen step forward with his plate approach.

Conclusions: Lombardozzi is a very underrated prospect who is already MLB-ready at a young age. He should be able to provide average offense and well-above-average defense at a key defensive spot, but he doesn’t have the offensive upside of most players on this list. That explains why he’s underrated, and I believe he’ll continue to be underrated as a major leaguer even if he meets that upside.

In a perfect world, Lombardozzi will become a good #2 hitter (in the traditional sense, not the sabermetric one), whose value in the field makes him far more valuable than he appears. He’s already worth starting for many MLB teams, and could possibly end up a better player than current Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa.

Check out all of the Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects here!

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Tags: Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals

Aaron Somers 6 pts

Nice work guys. I won't necessarily take a stance on the "he's ranked too high" argument. I'll wait to see the rest of the Top 100.

I do like Lombardozzi though. In fact, should the Nationals have to deal any of their middle infielders in a deal for either pitching or center field help I'd prefer it be Desmond, letting Espinosa slide over to short and Lombardozzi take over at second. I guess we'll see how this one plays out and whether other teams covet him as highly.

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oldbarn98 5 pts

WOW...talk about stepping out. Stephen Lombardozzi, maybe at #168 but at #68, that's really aggressive. I get the comment that he is major league ready but I see him as a second division starter. Yeah, he's gritty and will get his jersey dirty but I think his ceiling is .270 to .280. The contact rate is there but he doesn't walk enough and with an Isolated power of .120, I would think a range of .250-.260 is more inline. I do like the stolen base potential but that's about it. I much prefer Jean Segura as a MI over Lombardozzi or your #100 pick, Tyler Pastornicky...he seems like the same type of player but has the added benefit of being a SS and a potential job next year.

NathanielStoltz 7 pts

oldbarn98 Hmm...interesting take, and perhaps closer to my own than the ranking difference would appear.

We pretty much agree on his power potential, so it comes down basically to how much hard contact you project him to make. We're probably .020 AVG, .020 OBP, .030 SLG apart in our projections for him. That's obviously big--one could say he's just a .260/.320/.370 hitter (and thus a second-division starter, as you claim) or .280/.340/.400, which is a first-division starter, as I claim. And that's a difference of what, eight singles and four doubles in a season? Not a huge difference--I just am somewhat optimistic that he'll find a way to barrel the ball, while you're more skeptical. And hey, that's fair! Much better than the typical "But Keith Law says he's not a top 100 guy, so you must be wrong!" comments. And I, of course, could very well be wrong myself.

The other factor, of course, is defense, which is obviously a big reason why I'm high on Lombardozzi. I'd say a 10-15 run above average 2B is more valuable defensively than an average SS like Pastornicky. And Pastornicky projects to hit for a higher average with fewer walks and XBH. What's your take on Lombardozzi's defense? From everything I've seen, he's thought to be a potential GG 2B--won the minor league 2B GG, for what it's worth.

NathanielStoltz Well, Derek Jeter won a gold glove last year...LOL. I've never seen Lombardozzi play live, just on MiLB.TV but if truth be told, I was watching for other players and didn't play close attention. To speculate, I would think he'd be fundamentally sound given his father played in the majors as a 2B and is now a fielding coach, for I think the Pirates. If he gets a chance to play, we'll find out. I'm not going to hold much value in his Sept. cup of coffee.

I'm pretty sure you'll stand alone on this one, which is good because it never hurts to be contrarian. Who would have thought Jose Altuve would have made it to the bigs.

oldbarn98 Hence my "for what it's worth!" Although I'd think minor league GG would be more of a meritocracy than MLB, since name recognition isn't at play as much.

His numbers sure indicate fundamental soundness, and from what video I've seen he sure looks good, although I have to admit I'm not great at scouting position players. After all, he's pretty athletic, so all else aside, I'd think he'd have above-average range to go with the good fundamentals. Scouting reports seem to back that up--his arm is the negative defensively, and that's not an issue at 2B.

Yeah, never hurts to be contrarian. My lists in years past used to be WAY out there, but I rein it in more each year, I think. Lombardozzi's one of the big stretches, and we're about to hit a few more in this next week or so, and you could argue that guys like Brian Dozier and Maikel Cleto were overly ambitious as well. Usually, I tend to be about 50/50 on my big gambles--like I left Kyle Drabek off the list entirely last year, which looks very smart now, but I also omitted Brett Lawrie, which looks extremely stupid.

But really, with these sort of picks where I differ from the mainstream by a whole lot, I still go with what I think is right, rather than "watering the list down" just to make it look more traditional. After all, if I'm right, readers get informed, and if I'm wrong, I get informed. Someone always learns from it.

thebaseballfish 6 pts moderator

NathanielStoltzoldbarn98 Don't get me started again on your ranking of Dozier! I'd go on and on about it publicly but I don't want to ruin the surprise of some of the guys that didn't make your list. Though I will say there is a certain 2B I am fond of that I believe is more deserving ...