The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #85: Maikel Cleto

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Name: Maikel Cleto
DOB: 5/1/89
Organization: Cardinals
Position: Pitcher
Notable 2011 Stats: 2.48 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 2 HRA, 10 BB, 33 K, 39% GB% in 29 IP with Palm Beach (High-A);
3.93 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 2 HRA, 12 BB, 36 K, 50% GB% in 34 1/3 IP with Springfield (AA);
4.29 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 6 HRA, 43 BB, 66 K, 45% GB% in 71 1/3 IP with Memphis (AAA);
3.81 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 10 HRA, 65 BB, 135 K, 46% GB% in 134 2/3 IP between 3 minor league levels;
12.46 ERA, 9.03 FIP, 2 HRA, 4 BB, 6 K, 40% GB% in 4 1/3 with Cardinals

Why He’s This High: Of the 662 pitchers who threw a pitch in the major leagues during 2011, none had a higher average fastball velocity than Cleto’s 98.4 mph. He fired 96-101 mph bullets in relief, and the pitch has good run and sink even at its higher velocities. As a starter, Cleto’s more in the 93-99 mph range, but still boasts a very intimidating heater.

He backs the fastball up with a solid hard curveball in the 82-86 mph range, giving him two good pitches. Ordinarily, a starter needs a more well-rounded arsenal than that, but with this sort of heat, Cleto doesn’t need a changeup as much as most guys. That said, he does throw one, which comes in (rather amusingly) in the low-90′s.

As a 22-year-old, the righthander had no trouble pitching in the High-A Florida State League, and he also handled Double-A with aplomb–no small feat considering that his home park there was the most hitter-friendly park in Double-A. He continued to strike batters out at a solid clip in both Triple-A and the majors; were it not for a disastrous first inning of MLB pitching (which can be excused, certainly), his line would indicate that he didn’t have too much trouble even at the highest level.

Holding his own after all the promotions was a great accomplishment, and Cleto’s premium arm strength gives him tons of upside.

Why He’s This Low: Cleto’s always been seen as a very raw pitcher, which is why he doesn’t show up on many top prospect lists despite touching 101 with his fastball. He had a 5.33 ERA in Low-A in 2009 and a 6.10 ERA in High-A (Cal League/High Desert caveats apply; 4.31 FIP) in 2010.

Like #88 prospect Dellin Betances, Cleto uses a delivery that’s basically fundamentally sound, but he doesn’t always repeat it, causing him to lose his release point and start missing the zone. This obviously caught up to him in Triple-A and the majors, where he was facing veteran hitters who had seen shoulder-high 98 mph heat and plenty of curves in the dirt before. While some of the problems in Triple-A can be excused since he was rushed through Double-A quickly (as I said above), we also shouldn’t ignore the fact that it’s the early-season High-A/Double-A low walk rates that look out of line. Plenty of guys have “solved” their control issues for 50, or even 100, innings at a time, only to regress back–just look at Betances or the Rays’ Chris Archer.

Also like Betances, Cleto’s combination of arm strength and inconsistency strongly suggests a bullpen move, where he can regularly work at maximum velocity and forget about the changeup. As I mentioned in Betances’ writeup, such a move would negate a large portion of the pitcher’s potential.

Conclusions: Cleto definitely made some progress in going from thrower to pitcher in 2011, but there’s still lots of work to do; namely, he must get more consistent with his delivery and his changeup. He doesn’t turn 23 until May (a full year younger than Betances and with more AAA/MLB experience, definitely a plus), so he has some time to correct his flaws, and we certainly shouldn’t rule out further progress in light of the strides he made in 2011. That said, he’s an atypical hurler whom many have profiled for the bullpen. There’s an outside chance that Cleto becomes the NL’s Justin Verlander with this grade of heat, but the emphasis is on outside. Becoming Brandon Morrow–possibly complete with the early-career “starter or reliever?” drama–is more realistic, but the bullpen looms as a less desirable, and very possible, alternative.

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Tags: Maikel Cleto, St Louis Cardinals

GetRealMan 5 pts

"There’s an outside chance that Cleto becomes the NL’s Justin Verlander with this grade of heat, but the emphasis is on outside." By outside you mean no shot at all? This guy will never even start a game in the majors for the Cardinals and they have a loaded young BP with others like Swagerty who are better fighting open roster spots.

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Maikel Cleto say what? I could give you benefit of the doubt on the Rosenthal at 92 but this one makes me think you guys are Cardinals fans or lost in the prospect game. This guy isn't even going to be Top-10 on any of the big guys list but you guys view him at 85th overall?

Sickels had him 14th in his list and Rosenthal 10th so can we expect around 12 more Cardinals on this list or are you going to add more than that?

NathanielStoltz 7 pts

GetRealMan I'm an A's fan. There are a total of 5 Cardinals prospects on the list; Tyrell Jenkins and Kolten Wong were in the final cuts, so I guess I have seven in the top 125 or so.

Yeah, I saw Sickels' list. I thought it was quite well done. And note his comments on both Rosenthal and Cleto--they line up with my observations pretty well. As I told you with Rosenthal, I don't care to debate rankings, I care to debate attributes. If I'm in agreement with the other analysts about the attributes, it doesn't really matter what the ranking is.

I'll admit that Cleto is certainly one of my bigger stretches. Still, I think that he gets unfairly written off as a starter. He's got a big, durable frame, and he's already shown he can throw strikes through the Double-A level as a 22-year-old. That's more than you can say for a lot of prospects ahead of him.

Here's how I look at it--Dellin Betances is a fairly comparable prospect for Cleto. Both are big, throw hard, and have solid-to-plus curveballs with not much in the way of a third pitch. Now, Betances is #88, and that seems pretty fair for him--it lines up with most other lists, yes? But Cleto throws harder and pitched MUCH better than Betances in Double-A; they also had somewhat similar performances in AAA and the majors. He's also a year younger. Thus, I rate him slightly higher, as:

Age-->CletoVelocity-->CletoOffspeed-->BetancesCommand-->Cleto

Closeness to majors-->Cleto

They're similar in all five except for age, but to me, Cleto's slightly better overall.

GetRealMan Wow, my formatting failed on that attribute comparison, haha.

NathanielStoltz So you have these two on but have Tyrell Jenkins off the list who is head and shoulders above these two in the prospect world?

Cleto is never ever going to start with the Cardinals so he is a pure BP arm and he isn't even better than Jordan Swagerty who should be on the list ahead of both Cardinals guys you stuck on here.

GetRealMan Barely above Jenkins, yes. I'm hesitant to rank short-season guys in general, unless they have a premium draft pedigree or absolutely otherworldly numbers, hence my trepidation with Jenkins. I also have concerns about Jenkins' mechanics.

I do like Swagerty, but his minor league usage suggests the Cardinals are more resigned to him relieving than Cleto. Cleto's build is more suitable to starting, regardless.

If you see Cleto as a pure reliever, obviously he's not worthy of the list--probably the only pure reliever I'd even consider would be Addison Reed. But I see a guy with a nice second pitch, a durable frame, and reasonable production as a starter (given his age). If you don't buy into that, that's fine--I understand the reasons to hesitate. Time will tell.

NathanielStoltz Cleto and Swagerty are both heading to the Pen with their current teams since the Cardinals are set on SP for next year and the next openings are for Miller and Martinez.

GetRealMan That's fair, but let's not forget that injuries and ineffectiveness can strike at any time and open up roles for people. Look at who the Red Sox were starting in September, and their rotation in April had no apparent issues. Look at what happened to my A's--nearly the entire staff went down, opening up room for guys like Guillermo Moscoso to prove themselves. Plus, Cleto could always pull a Kyle McClellan and move to starting later on once a spot opens up--you could never rule out a trade, either, as other teams could certainly fall in love with his arm strength and ask for him in exchange for some sort of veteran upgrade for a no-doubt contending Cardinals team in 2012.

I guess we'll see, but it's not like I didn't acknowledge that. I did say, after all, "Also like Betances, Cleto’s combination of arm strength and inconsistency strongly suggests a bullpen move, where he can regularly work at maximum velocity and forget about the changeup...such a move would negate a large portion of the pitcher’s potential." So I'm well aware it could happen.

thebaseballfish 6 pts moderator

The Cards appear set with their 2012 rotation right now, but many things can change during the offseason and it's a major miracle for a rotation to stay intact for an entire season.

Miller might get a look next year but that's not a given since he just reached AA and has less than 100 IP at the level. Will the Cardinals push him aggressively just to get him past other guys like Cleto that may - or may not - be able to "hold the fort" if needed next season?

Martinez is a LONG way away given that he just reached A+ and his 10 FSL starts were far from successful and the jump to AA is much more difficult to make. Further, just based on rotation attrition either Martinez or Miller are going to falter/flame out and StL is going to need to find rotation help from somewhere.

I see Nathaniel just responded as well so I will cut this short, but I do want to point out that none of us are Cardinals fans and we very publicly claim our team "allegiances." Nathaniel is an A's fan, James is a Tigers guy and I'm a Twins/Royals fan. Not sure where Joe falls on the topic since he's new but I'm sure we will learn soon enough on that.

I personally dislike the Cardinals more than any teams outside of the Yankees and White Sox, but when it comes to writing about prospects and the minors I try not to let my team biases come into play. I know Nathaniel and James strive to follow that same path.